Tuesday, April 24, 2012

2012 NFL Mock Draft

Mock Draft
by
David Newbury

1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck - QB- Stanford
Andrew Luck entered the 2011 season expected to be number one, and he did not disappoint. While underrated as an athlete, his presence inside the pocket is outstanding. Luck understands how to work through his progressions. He throws his receivers open and takes what the defense gives him. RGIII is the sexier prospect, but Andrew Luck is the next Eli Manning.
2. Washington Redskins - Robert Griffen III - QB- Baylor
RGIII would be the number one pick any other year. He is a smart, natural leader, and combines his athletic talent with hard work. When he ran the 40 yard dash at the combine every player, coach, and scout stopped to watch. RGIII’s accuracy has improved, and his deep ball finds the mark. The biggest difference between Luck and RGIII is durability. RGIII will hold the ball too long at times and expose himself to hits. He still has a lot to learn about the position and progressions, but I wouldn't bet against him being the best QB from this class.
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil - LT - USC
Kalil is the left tackle the Vikings need to protect Christian Ponder, their "franchise” QB. Drafting Kalil kills two birds with one stone. Kalil will start at left tackle, and this will allow them to move Charlie Johnson to left guard. Minnesota plays in the same division as Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Marshall tempting them to take cornerback, Morris Claiborne. Minnesota can find a corner and wide receiver later in the draft. It will be hard to find a left tackle in the second or third round if they pass on Kalil.
4. Cleveland Browns - Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The AFC North is the most physical division in football, and Trent Richardson is the physical workhorse the Browns need. The Browns have a lot of holes to fill, but Richardson will give them a much needed identity. Richardson is the best player left on the board. They might be tempted to take Justin Blackmon. This is a very deep WR class. There is not a lot of separation between the number one and number two WR. Richardson is miles ahead of the number two RB. Cleveland will kick the tires on Ryan Tannehill and decide Richardson is too good to pass up.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
The Bucs have been busy this offseason improving their offense with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks. They also signed Eric Wright, but he's a number two corner at best. Ronde Barber isn't getting any younger and Aqib Talib will probably get arrested by the time I finish this sentence. The Bucs play Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan twice a year. They have invested in their defensive line the past two drafts, it’s time they address their corners.
6. St. Louis Rams - Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi St
The Rams are a hard team to figure out. They would like Trent Richardson to fall to them. They desperately need to upgrade the receiver position. Justin Blackmon seems to be that obvious choice. Many feel that taking Blackmon this high would be a reach. He compares more to Dwayne Bowe (23rd pick overall) or Anquan Bolden (54th pick overall) than top 10 picks at this position in previous years. St. Louis would be smart to address their needs for WR with one of their second round picks where there is tremendous value at that position. Fletcher Cox would give the Rams an interior presence that would help solidify their poor run defense which ranked 31st in the league last year. This is a really difficult pick to predict. I wouldn't blame the Rams for drafting Blackmon. In my opinion, Fletcher Cox has a higher ceiling than Blackmon.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma St
This is best case scenario for Jacksonville. With a bad rookie season behind him, Blaine Gabbert needs a new weapon. He needs a reliable target that can help him develop. If Blackmon is gone they will try to trade this pick hoping someone will want to trade up for Ryan Tannehill. The Jaguars worst case scenario would be with Blackmon off the board and no trade partner, they would be forced to address the trenches.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
No free agent QB wanted to play in Miami so they will have to draft one. Tannehill is talented but he is raw. Miami will call the Brown’s bluff and not trade up to 3 for Tannehill. It will be interesting to see if they try to move up to 6. Miami might be worried about Kansas City trading up to 7 for Tannehill. They should sit tight. Tannehill didn't get much help from his receivers at A&M. I stopped counting at 50 drops through 8 games. Making the transition to the pro’s a little smoother, Tannehill would be reunited with his former head coach Mike Sherman, the new offensive coordinator in Miami.. Miami needs Matt Moore to play well so the Miami brass won’t be tempted to play Tannehill too early.
9. Carolina Panthers - Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
Carolina would like to add another weapon for Cam Newton, but unfortunately, they need a lot of help on defense. The Panthers poor defensive performance last year will cause head coach, Ron Rivera, to address their defensive line or take a corner. This is too high to take Poe or Brockers. Coples is an option, a local kid that reminds many of Julius Peppers. Coples has top ten talent, but he doesn't always apply his talent. Carolina needs a corner to play opposite Chris Gamble. Gilmore is rising up a lot of team’s boards. He's a reach at 9, but he fills a real need.
10. Buffalo Bills- Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
Buffalo needs a left tackle. The obvious choice is Iowa's left tackle Riley Reiff. I don’t think Buffalo takes a tackle here. I think they take the best playmaker left on the board. Michael Floyd has a lot of talent, and he's the perfect complement to Stevie Johnson. He is used to playing in wet, windy, and cold conditions, and will be a heck of a red zone target for Ryan Fitzpatrick
11. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
The Chiefs signed Eric Winston this offseason to play RT. Pioli will be tempted to take David DeCastro to further solidify the offensive line. The Chiefs don't have many holes for a 7-9 team. Kuechly is the perfect complement to Derrick Johnson. Kuechly might be the safest pick in the draft. Kansas City could place a phone call to Jacksonville to see how much it would cost to move up to 7 for Tannehill.
12. Seattle Seahawks - Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
Pete Carroll might be the perfect coach for Coples.because he knows how to get the best out of his players. Seattle needs someone to get to the QB, and Coples could fill that need.. Kuechly is an option if he's available. The real wildcard here is Mark Barron. Seattle has a great young secondary. Teams are playing more and more nickel defense. Carroll could draft Barron and move Kam Chancellor to 'Will' LB. Chancellor is 6ft 3 and 232 lbs.
13. Arizona Cardinals - Riley Reiff - OL - Iowa
Whoever plays QB in Arizona needs time to get the ball downfield to Larry Fitzgerald. Reiff is the best tackle on the board. It will be interesting to see if Reiff is Arizona's choice. Cordy Glenn or David DeCastro could be in play here.
14. Dallas Cowboys- TRADE or Mark Barron -Safety- Alabama
This is best case scenario for Dallas. Dallas likes Brockers, Barron, Upshaw, and DeCastro. They don’t love any player more than the other. Dallas will field calls to trade down. They want one of these four players so they can’t move down too far. San Diego is the ideal candidate. Mark Barron will probably be the selection if Dallas can't move down. Barron has his limitations in coverage. He shows inconsistent suddenness. There are times when his back pedal looks really stiff and heavy. There are other times when he turns and runs with no problem. He does a good job when the play is in front of him. He will take bad angles to the ball and sometimes gets beat as a result. I moved Brockers and DeCastro ahead of him on my board. Here's the problem Dallas has. If not Barron then who? Dallas desperately needs a safety. This is a BAD safety class. Dallas can address their need for G/C and defensive line later in the draft. They might not be able to upgrade the safety position if they don’t take Barron. It's something to think about.
15. Philadelphia Eagles- Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
The Eagles have the same needs as the Cowboys do. If Dallas takes Mark Barron then the Eagles will take Michael Brockers. If Dallas take Brockers then the Eagles will draft Barron. If Dallas trades down, and both are available, I believe the Eagles will draft Barron. The Eagles really struggled defending the middle of the field last year and must address that with the 15th pick. Brockers would really help solidify their run defense and take some pressure off of their "wide 9's" defensive ends. Barron might be a better fit for the Eagles than the Cowboys .
16. New York Jets - Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
Ingram is a talented football player without a natural position. Rex Ryan needs someone that can get to the QB, and Ingram can fill that slot. Ryan will move Ingram around to find the best match up for each week. The Jets might be tempted to take Upshaw, but Ingram is more versatile.
17. Cincinnati Bengals -Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
The Bengals will be tempted to take Courtney Upshaw here. There are plenty of pass rushers left on the board, and one really good corner. I'm a big fan of Kirkpatrick. He is a tall, physical corner with really long arms.. I mentioned earlier how physical the AFC North is, andKirkpatrick won’t be afraid to mix it up. He will be a plug and play starter and an immediate upgrade for the Bengals.
18. San Diego Chargers- Cordy Glenn - G/RT - Georgia
Glenn over DeCastro? Yes! He can play tackle. A lot of people want to move Glenn inside to guard where he played as a junior. He showed at the Senior Bowl that he can play tackle at the next level. At the very least he can play RT. The Chargers need help at both guard and right tackle.
19. Chicago Bears - David DeCastro - G - Stanford
I don’t think Chicago envisioned DeCastro falling in their lap at 19. They should run to the podium and turn their card in the second the Chargers finish making their selection. DeCastro is one of the best players, and safest offensive player in this draft. The Bears must protect Cutler if they want to compete. They added their big WR when they traded for Brandon Marshall. They might be tempted to take the local defensive end Whitney Mercilus since he recorded 16 sacks last year for Illinois. He's tempting, but DeCastro is the smart choice.
WILDCARD: Quinton Coples could fall on draft day because of his motor or “lack thereof”. Coples has long been compared to Julius Peppers, and Chicago might be the perfect landing spot for him. He would be a huge addition to the Bears defensive line. Urlacher and company would not let him take plays off.
20. Tennessee Titans - Nick Perry -DE/OLB - USC
The Titans are one of the hardest teams to project. They could use another corner after losing Cortland Finnegan via free agency. Their owner wasted so much time chasing Peyton Manning, they missed out on Mario Williams. Perry has bulked up to 271 and can hold up against the run.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Courtney Upshaw -DE/OLB - Alabama
The Bengals gamble to take Kirkpatrick at 17 is paying off. Kirkpatrick would not have made it past Tennessee. Upshaw is a gamer. Nothing he does is pretty, but it’s effective. WILDCARD: Bengals could take a WR here to take some pressure off of A.J. Green. Baylor's Kendall Wright would be perfect.
22. Cleveland Browns - Rueben Randle -WR- LSU
This might be seen as a reach by most. Randle could be a hidden gem in this WR class. He suffered from a poor QB class while at LSU. Mike Holmgram likes big receivers, and Randle has plenty of size at 6 ft 3. It will be nice to see what Colt McCoy can do with Trent Richardson and Randle at WR. I don't think the Browns should take a QB early. Cleveland needs to find out if McCoy can play or not before moving on. If McCoy can’t play, then Cleveland will be drafting early next year. Cleveland could have first dibs at Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, or Landry Jones. Either way Cleveland now has playmakers for whoever plays QB.
23. Detroit Lions - Jonathan Martin -OL- Stanford
Detroit would love a corner here. Janoris Jenkins has enough talent to take at 23, but some major character concerns. Detroit has had their fair share of character problems with Nick Fairley and Michael Leshoure. They might be tempted to take Jenkins, but they will ultimately take an offensive lineman. Detroit’s success will be measured by Mathew Stafford's right arm. The Stafford to Calvin Johnson tandem only works if Stafford is kept upright. Stafford has constantly battled injuries because of the poor protection by the aging offensive line. Detroit has three offensive linemen over 30 years old. Martin is not an exciting pick, but he would help protect their franchise QB.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Donta' Hightower -LB- Alabama
Something about Hightower screams Steelers to me. Maybe it is because he's a thumper. He is more versatile than some people give him credit for, and like his four Alabama teammates selected before him, he loves football. Hightower will fill an immediate need at interior linebacker plus he can get to the QB. It will be very interesting to watch all the different ways that defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau uses Hightower.
Wildcard: Boise St running back Doug Martin. Mendenhall will likely be out for the year after suffering an ACL injury late in the season.
25. Denver Broncos - Devon Still -DT- Penn St
The Broncos need to win now because who knows how much time Manning has left. Denver will be tempted to take Dontari Poe, but they will realize that they don't have time for Poe to develop. Still is ready to contribute now. He is a big body that can help plug the run.
Wildcard: Lamar Miller - remember the stretch play that the Colts used to run all the time? That wide zone play will be a staple in the Broncos playbook. Miller is a “one cut and go” running back that would thrive in Denver's system.
26. Houston Texans - Kendall Wright -WR- Baylor
I've had Kendall Wright going to the Texans since January. I don't care about Wright's “40” time. I watched him blow by corner after corner on tape. All of those corners ran faster "40's" than Wright. He's a great compliment to Andre Johnson, and would shine in Houston's offense. The Texans have drafted well over the last 3 years, and last year used 6 of their 8 picks on defense. They have lost two starting offensive lineman due to either cap issues or free agency so the temptation here would be to take an offensive lineman if the right guy falls. In this scenario the right guy hasn't fallen. They will be happy with Kendall Wright.
27. New England Patriots - Andre Branch -DE/OLB- Clemson
In the past Bill Belichick has traded one of his first round picks. This is the year he actually uses both first round picks. New England needs a pass rusher. Branch is a true hybrid DE/OLB, and could be the most natural pass rusher in this draft. He is scheme versatile, and that’s what Belichick covets. Branch could be the rookie of the year.
28. Green Bay Packers - Shea McClellin - OLB - Boise St
Shea McClellin is a Ted Thompson guy. He's a poor man’s Clay Mathews, and is not bothered by the cold weather. McClellin can pressure the QB from the other side, and hold up well against the run. His stock is really high right now, and it makes you wonder where he would be drafted if he played for USC or Alabama. Boise St could end up putting the best players into this year’s draft. It will be interesting to see if he makes it past New England. If the pass rushers are gone then Peter Konz will be in play. He can play guard next to Jeff Saturday and take over for Saturday once he retires.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Konz - C/G - Wisconsin
Konz can step in and replace Ben Grubbs at guard. Since Matt Birk is 35 years old, he could move to center next year. Konz has some medical issues, and if he doesn’t pass Baltimore's physical, his teammate Kevin Zeitler could be the selection. Both Konz and Zeitler could start at guard next year for the Ravens.
WILDCARD: Dontari Poe - It seems every year that a great player falls to the Ravens. Poe could slide on draft day. If the Broncos don't stop his fall then the Ravens could. They have one of the strongest locker rooms in the NFL. Ray Lewis demands effort. Poe ‘s versatility has been overlooked by many, but he could end up being a heck of a player for the Ravens
30. San Francisco 49ers - Kevin Zeitler - G - Wisconsin
The NFC runners up don't have many holes on their depth chart. The do need a guard and a WR. San Fran should take Zeitler here, and a WR in the second round. The WRs left on the board are too raw to help the 49ers now. If Randle or Wright fall, they should take one.
31. New England Patriots- Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
Why not? The guy has incredible upside. The risk here at 31 could be well worth the return. Vince Wolfork could really teach Poe how to become a dominant force for years to come.
32. New York Giants - Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
It won’t take the Giants long to realize that Martellus Bennett is not the answer at TE. Fleener struggles as a blocker, but he can flat run and catch passes. Fleener could be Eli Manning’s favorite target by the end of the year. If the Giants decide to go in another direction they could consider taking a running back. Boise States's running back Doug Martin would be a great fit.
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